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Macquarie analysts project Macau’s gaming industry to exceed 2025 growth forecasts, spurred by Beijing’s policies and stronger-than-anticipated tourism recovery. Their analysis suggests the market may outperform consensus expectations of 6% gross gaming revenue (GGR) growth, driven by favorable visa policies, government support, and operational improvements.

Policy Support Signals Optimism

Macau’s position as a key tourism and entertainment hub continues to gain traction, thanks to Beijing’s supportive policies. The easing of visa restrictions and the renewal of gaming concessions in 2023 indicate a long-term commitment to the region’s development. Analysts believe these measures signal a strong endorsement from the Chinese government, with Macquarie noting, “China values Macau and continues to endorse the destination.”

These efforts align with broader initiatives to solidify Macau’s status as a premier travel destination, attracting high-value tourists and boosting visitation rates.

A Boon for Gaming Operators

Macquarie identifies three major U.S.-based gaming operators—Wynn Macau, Las Vegas Sands (LVS), and MGM—as beneficiaries of these market dynamics. Each company is poised to leverage improving fundamentals and increased tourist activity to outpace competitors.

• Wynn Macau: Analysts argue the market underestimates the company’s potential, leaving room for significant upside. Strategic investments and strong brand recognition are likely to drive growth.
• Las Vegas Sands (LVS): As the second-largest operator in Macau, LVS is set for a transformative year. Renovations at its flagship properties, The Londoner Macao and The Venetian Macao, are nearing completion, with Phase II of The Londoner scheduled for mid-2025.
• MGM China: MGM is bolstering its market share through ongoing expansion projects, solidifying its competitive positioning in the region.

Key Milestones to Watch

Macquarie highlights several events that could signal outperformance, including Chinese New Year Golden Week in February 2025. This period is a critical travel season for Chinese tourists and an early test of the sector’s recovery trajectory.

Additional capacity expansions, such as new room availability at major properties, are expected to improve the operational landscape. For instance:

• Renovations at The Londoner Macao are projected to peak in Q3 2025.
• Expanded accommodations at Sands properties could further boost revenues.

These developments underscore the sector’s ability to meet rising demand, particularly as international travel normalizes.

Economic Tailwinds

Improved EBITDA growth across the sector is anticipated, thanks to a combination of operational efficiencies, higher visitation, and favorable policy frameworks. Analysts expect robust earnings for 2025, with operators capitalizing on higher-margin gaming segments and broader customer engagement initiatives.

A table of projected milestones for key operators further illustrates the optimistic outlook:

Analysts Remain Bullish

Macquarie’s recommendation for all three operators as “Outperform” reflects confidence in their ability to surpass market expectations. While uncertainties remain, such as potential policy changes or economic fluctuations, the overall outlook for Macau’s gaming sector appears promising.

As 2025 approaches, the region’s operators are well-positioned to navigate market dynamics, driven by supportive policies, operational enhancements, and strategic investments.

Kirk Hendrick, the chairman of the Nevada Gaming Control Board, has announced his resignation, marking the end of a pivotal two-year tenure. Hendrick’s decision, disclosed Wednesday, comes after discussions with Governor Joe Lombardo and sets the stage for a leadership transition following the 2025 legislative session.

A Strategic Exit with Unfinished Business

In a statement to board members and staff, Hendrick highlighted the accomplishments achieved under his leadership while emphasising his commitment to further progress before his departure. He noted that the timing of his announcement allows the governor ample opportunity to appoint a successor and ensures continuity in the board’s operations.

Hendrick’s exact departure date remains undecided, but his resignation is expected to coincide with the conclusion of the 2025 legislative session, which traditionally ends in June. “I’m dedicated to accomplishing much more over the next several months,” Hendrick affirmed, promising to stay actively involved in the board’s operations until a new chairperson is in place.

Recent Shifts in Leadership Dynamics

Hendrick’s resignation announcement follows closely on the heels of another significant change within the board. Fellow member Brittnie Watkins revealed last week that she would not seek reappointment after her term expires in January. Watkins briefly held the interim chair role before Hendrick’s appointment in early 2023.

These transitions signal a notable period of change for the board, which has been a key regulatory body in Nevada’s thriving gaming industry. Hendrick’s leadership has been marked by efforts to streamline regulations and foster innovation, while Watkins contributed her expertise to critical licensing decisions and policy discussions.

Achievements and Controversies Under Hendrick’s Watch

Hendrick took the helm of the Gaming Control Board during a transformative era, focusing on regulatory modernisation. His tenure saw amendments and repeals to gaming regulations, which facilitated quicker approvals for new gaming products and reduced compliance burdens for operators.

Among his notable achievements:

• Licensing major properties such as Fontainebleau Las Vegas and Station Casinos’ Durango development.
• Initiating the licensing process for executives overseeing the Seminole Indian Tribe’s transition of The Mirage into Hard Rock Las Vegas.
• Overseeing the board’s actions regarding disciplinary measures against former Las Vegas casino executive Steve Wynn.

Despite these accomplishments, Hendrick faced criticism over the board’s handling of illegal gambling activities within prominent Nevada casinos. A pending regulatory complaint he filed in August against Resorts World Las Vegas over alleged illegal bookmaker operations underscores the challenges of his tenure.

A Legacy Built on Legal Expertise

Before his appointment as chairman, Hendrick had a storied career in gaming and sports law. He served as general counsel for the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC), where he later became COO and executive vice president. Earlier, he held key roles within the Nevada Attorney General’s Gaming Division, providing legal counsel to the Gaming Control Board and the Nevada Gaming Commission.

Hendrick’s legal expertise extended beyond public service. At the law firm Jones Vargas, he specialised in gaming and sports law, building a reputation for navigating complex regulatory landscapes. His return to public service as Gaming Control Board chairman brought his deep legal knowledge and strategic acumen to the forefront.

The Path Ahead for Nevada’s Gaming Oversight

With Hendrick’s impending resignation and Watkins’ departure, the Nevada Gaming Control Board faces a leadership vacuum that could shape the state’s gaming landscape for years to come. Governor Lombardo will play a crucial role in selecting new board members and steering the board’s future priorities.

As Hendrick prepares to exit, his focus remains on ensuring a smooth transition and achieving further goals during the final months of his tenure. His legacy, a blend of regulatory reform and legal expertise, leaves an indelible mark on Nevada’s gaming oversight, but challenges remain for the incoming leadership.

Super Group, the parent company of Betway and Spin, has unveiled a preliminary financial update for Q4 2024, projecting the strongest quarter in its history outside the United States. The company anticipates revenue of approximately €486 million ($510.97 million) and adjusted EBITDA between €125 million ($131.42 million) and €130 million ($136.68 million), significantly surpassing expectations. Shares of Super Group soared by over 8% following the announcement.

Revenue and EBITDA Surge to Historic Highs

Super Group’s performance in Q4 2024 marked an extraordinary milestone, driven by all-time highs in deposits and revenue, particularly in December. For the full year, the company estimates revenue of €1.66 billion, representing an 18% year-on-year increase, while adjusted EBITDA is expected to exceed €387 million ($406.88 million), showcasing a remarkable 50% growth.

• Exceeding the ex-U.S. revenue target of €1.6 billion.
• Achieving an EBITDA margin surpassing 23%, indicating strong operational efficiency.
• Adjusted EBITDA for 2024 projected between €387 million and €392 million.

This substantial growth underlines Super Group’s ability to outperform its financial targets and cement its position as a leader in global gaming and iGaming markets.

U.S. Market Performance and Strategic Focus

While the U.S. market has posed challenges for many operators, Super Group recorded significant milestones in its iGaming operations during Q4. October saw a record-setting revenue performance, with subsequent months—November and December—exceeding that figure.

Despite exiting the U.S. sportsbook market in July 2024, the company retained its focus on iGaming. This strategic pivot resulted in an investment of approximately €11 million ($11.57 million) in Q4, bringing the total U.S. investment for the year to €61 million ($64.13 million). The company anticipates reducing its U.S. investment significantly in 2025 as its streamlined approach takes hold.

CEO Comments on U.S. Performance

Neal Menashe, CEO of Super Group, commented on the U.S. operations: “We’ve made key adjustments in our strategy for the U.S. market, prioritising iGaming. The results in the fourth quarter show the effectiveness of this approach, and we’re looking forward to a more focused investment strategy moving forward.”

Key Drivers of Growth in Q4 2024

Super Group’s record-breaking quarter can be attributed to a variety of factors. Some of the most notable include:

• Seasonal Uptick in Gaming Activity: December is typically a strong month for online gaming, and Super Group capitalised on this seasonal trend with targeted marketing campaigns.
• Enhanced Customer Engagement: The company invested in user experience enhancements, contributing to increased deposits and higher customer retention.
• Geographic Expansion: Success in key international markets, particularly in Europe and Africa, provided a boost to overall revenue.

These drivers underscore the effectiveness of Super Group’s global strategy, which has allowed it to thrive even as it scales back operations in certain regions.

2025 Outlook: A Promising Start to the Year

The momentum from 2024 appears to have carried into 2025, with Neal Menashe expressing confidence in the company’s trajectory. “I’m proud to have ended 2024 on a high, with new records expected for both total revenue and adjusted EBITDA,” Menashe stated. “This momentum has continued into the start of 2025, setting a solid foundation for the year ahead.”

Challenges and Opportunities Ahead

Looking ahead, Super Group faces a dynamic market landscape. The company’s withdrawal from the U.S. sportsbook market could pose both risks and opportunities:

• Opportunities: A streamlined focus on iGaming in the U.S. allows for more efficient allocation of resources and better alignment with consumer demand.
• Challenges: Competitive pressures in global markets require continued innovation and adaptability to sustain growth.

Despite these potential hurdles, the company’s robust financial health positions it well for the coming year.